The Vox article goes on to chronicle the myriad issues with recent massive voucher expansions nationwide, citing economic and quality concerns with Arizona’s voucher fiasco:
- “In the short term, mostly it’s just going to be a funding giveaway to families that were already sending their kids to private schools,” said Douglas Harris, an economist at Tulane University who studies education policy.
- “By mid-May 2023, about 61,000 Arizona students were enrolled in an ESA, and the state department of education (ADE) estimated that number would rise to 100,000, about 8 percent of school-aged children in the state, over the next year.”
“Shortly after the universal program was opened, the state superintendent (then a Democrat) said that 75 percent of applicants had never attended public schools in the state… All we know for sure is that some families who weren’t using the public school system are now getting money to do what they were already doing, and some families who had been attending public schools are now getting money to go elsewhere.”- “What is the money producing? Again, the answer is unclear. The Goldwater Institute bragged in 2022 that Arizona’s ESA bill “does not have any testing requirements.” (Iowa legislators, in contrast, did include some.)”
- “Critics fear state money will go to low-quality private schools that don’t actually educate children well — and that, without transparent testing requirements, we’ll never find that out for sure.” As Morgan Polikoff, associate professor at USC Rossier School of Education said: “These policies being passed now are almost being evidence-proofed. You won’t be able to say, ‘This isn’t working, we need to do something different,’ because there won’t be the data.’”
While Arizona is not seeing a decline in public school enrollment, funding cuts due to vouchers will certainly lead to teacher and staff layoffs, and ultimately school closures. As noted in the article, Superintendent Tom Horne has already said he would push to close public schools if enrollment dropped, which is just what rural school voucher skeptics have long feared.
The article also describes how vouchers will fuel the proliferation of for-profit K-12 schools, which will be eager to get their hands on newly available state funding (Arizona’s program is now estimated to cost $900 million annually by July 2024). “In some places where similar things have been tried for low-income kids, there were not enough private schools, so new low-quality private schools opened,” said Liz Cohen, policy director for Georgetown University’s FutureEd think tank. We are already witnessing this trend in Arizona with the proliferation of unaccredited strip-mall schools.
As the article reveals, private schools and microschools have “wide latitude to discriminate in admissions” — which begs the question, “Can it truly be called ‘universal school choice’ if children can’t get into the school they want?”
With COVID relief dollars ending, a Prop 123 cliff in 2025, and former Gov. Ducey’s revenue-decimating flat tax fully phased in, Arizona schools and other state services face a perfect storm of funding cuts. Add in vouchers, and a major disaster looms. The Vox article predicts vouchers will create a problem for states:
“Either taxes will have to go up, or something — ESA [vouchers], public schools, or other state spending — will have to be cut.”